Leave-One-Out Classification for Time for Change Model
Year Incumbent Party Actual Two-Party Vote Share Predicted Two-Party Vote Share Predicted Classification1 Actual Classification Correct Classification2
1948 TRUE democrat 52.31764 48.60437 FALSE TRUE FALSE
1952 FALSE democrat 44.71056 46.46724 FALSE FALSE TRUE
1956 TRUE republican 57.76434 53.77993 TRUE TRUE TRUE
1960 FALSE republican 49.91324 52.27659 TRUE FALSE FALSE
1964 TRUE democrat 61.34397 52.68115 TRUE TRUE TRUE
1968 FALSE democrat 49.59538 52.74329 TRUE FALSE FALSE
1972 TRUE republican 61.78901 51.67931 TRUE TRUE TRUE
1976 TRUE republican 48.86265 50.32779 TRUE FALSE FALSE
1980 TRUE democrat 44.84244 45.92621 FALSE FALSE TRUE
1984 TRUE republican 59.12335 51.29158 TRUE TRUE TRUE
1988 FALSE republican 53.83246 56.42280 TRUE TRUE TRUE
1992 TRUE republican 46.37930 49.57074 FALSE FALSE TRUE
1996 TRUE democrat 54.80402 50.88638 TRUE TRUE TRUE
2000 FALSE democrat 50.25952 58.93545 TRUE TRUE TRUE
2004 TRUE republican 51.26932 48.97544 FALSE TRUE FALSE
2008 FALSE republican 46.22923 45.20858 FALSE FALSE TRUE
2012 TRUE democrat 51.91526 49.36158 FALSE TRUE FALSE
2016 FALSE democrat 51.16249 51.19675 TRUE TRUE TRUE

1 Classified as TRUE if the predicted two-party popular vote is greater than 50% and FALSE otherwise

2 Correctly predicted the two-party popular vote winner of 66.6% of the elections