Leave-One-Out Classification for the Incumbent Party Model

Year	Predicted Two-Party Vote Share	Actual Two-Party Vote Share	Predicted Classification	Actual Classification	Correct Classification¹
1968	48.67734	49.59538	FALSE	FALSE	TRUE
1972	62.27089	61.78901	TRUE	TRUE	TRUE
1976	52.95423	48.86265	TRUE	FALSE	FALSE
1980	42.82886	44.84244	FALSE	FALSE	TRUE
1984	58.80534	59.12335	TRUE	TRUE	TRUE
1988	50.64506	53.83246	TRUE	TRUE	TRUE
1992	46.16365	46.37930	FALSE	FALSE	TRUE
1996	52.88794	54.80402	TRUE	TRUE	TRUE
2000	50.01853	50.25952	TRUE	TRUE	TRUE
2004	52.30725	51.26932	TRUE	TRUE	TRUE
2008	50.52095	46.22923	TRUE	FALSE	FALSE
2012	52.16507	51.91526	TRUE	TRUE	TRUE
2016	50.25306	51.16249	TRUE	TRUE	TRUE
¹ Correctly predicted the two-party popular vote winner of 84.6% of the elections